The world’s youngest election

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Democracy is under scrutiny from Lagos to Mexico City this week. Geopolitics continues to rumble through Europe, but maybe also the South Pole. And there’s good news from the largest organized trial of a four-day work week, if you’re keen on more flexibility in your office or factory schedule.

THE WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

BREXIT DEAL, AGAIN: The European Union and U.K. government are in final talks today — in the English countryside in Berkshire — for a new Brexit deal on Northern Ireland border arrangements. Expect a result from around 10 a.m ET / 3 p.m. local time.

NIGERIAN ELECTION: Presidential and parliamentary results are trickling in for the biggest African election — in the world’s fifth-largest democracy — where around half of the country’s eligible voters are aged 18 to 35. It’s not just the size of the youth voting bloc that’s unique: Nigeria’s young are deeply pessimistic: In the most recent African Youth Survey, conducted by the Ichikowitz Foundation in 2022, 95 percent said their country is heading in the wrong direction.

Outsider candidate Peter Obi has narrowly won Lagos state, the region that includes the city of the same name. Results and analysis from BBC.

The election campaign featured the assassination of an opposition Senate candidate and a bribery scandal, and the final results will take several days to tally. The National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute have deployed a joint election observation mission.

TUESDAY

Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis soft launches his bid for the White House with the publication of his book “The Courage to Be Free.” The book is published by HarperCollins, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, which also published the first excerpt, “How the Florida blueprint can work for the whole US.”

Former L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti finally gets his chance at Senate confirmation as U.S. Ambassador to India in a Tuesday hearing.

FRIDAY

President Joe Biden will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House and discuss issues from Russian aggression to “working together on shared challenges posed by China and our cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.” There is no State Dinner for Scholz.

WHERE TO JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER TODAY: Ryan will be leading a conversation with the EU Ambassador to the U.S. Stavros Lambrinidis, Ukraine Ambassador Oksana Markarova and Swedish deputy head of mission Ingrid Ask on the EU’s promise to stand by Ukraine ”as long as it takes,” hosted by the Atlantic Council. Join live from 9 a.m. to 10 a.m. ET, or watch the replay.

DEMOCRACY — MASS PROTEST AGAINST MEXICAN ELECTORAL SHAKE-UP: Up to 100,000 people protested electoral law changes on Sunday in Mexico City— changes that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador says he will sign into law soon. The new law would “cut salaries, funding for local election offices and training for citizens who operate and oversee polling stations,” AP reported. The rules also reduce penalties for candidates who fail to report campaign spending.

DEMOCRACY — TIME TO INVESTIGATE CHINESE INFLUENCE ON CANADIAN ELECTIONS? Canada needs a public inquiry into allegations of Chinese election interference, according to the country’s former spymaster, Richard Fadden, after a stunning report from Global News’s Sam Cooper that a sitting Liberal MP, Han Dong, was aided by China’s Toronto consulate when he ran for the party nomination in 2019. More in POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook.

ECONOMY — CORPORATE TAX GAINS, BY THE NUMBERS: With implementation underway on elements of a global corporate tax deal reached in late 2021, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has collated estimates from governments and international organizations on how additional tax they expect to collect from multinational companies under the new system.

The OECD is at the optimistic end of the range: predicting a 9 percent increase in overall receipts. National government estimates range from the Netherlands which is betting on just a 2 percent rise, to France with 12 percent. “Given the uncertainty of these estimates, policymakers should be cautious about sacrificing their country’s competitiveness” in their efforts to implement the new rules, said Daniel Bunn, president of the Tax Foundation.

ECONOMY — SUCCESS IN FOUR-DAY WORK WEEK: A four-day working week boosts revenue and makes staff happier according to a six-month trial conducted by 61 British organizations last year.

By the numbers:

— 56 of the 61 participating organizations will retain their four-day system

— 71 percent of employees reported lower levels of burnout compared to the pre-trial period

— 65 percent reduction in sick days taken

— 57 percent drop in the number of staff leaving

TECH — FEAR OF FOREIGN AI INFLUENCE:New Morning Consult data reveals 70 percent of Americans are concerned about foreign powers’ potential use of AI against U.S. interests. That makes potential foreign AI influence the second-biggest concern of American online users, after privacy, which 74 percent worry is not adequately protected.

TECH — INSIDE THE U.K.’S “DEPARTMENT OF COOL”: POLITICO’s Tom Bristow and Annabelle Dickson take you into the working of Britain’s newly minted Department for Science, Innovation and Technology — created from a string of other departments and agencies to better coordinate U.K. digital investments and regulations, which include a proposed Data Protection and Digital Information Bill, and online content moderation rules. The new department somewhat mirrors the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, which dates back to 1976.

The U.K. Conservative government also recently created the Advanced Research and Invention Agency, with a budget of just under $1 billion — as the country’s answer to DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency — with a promise to focus on developing “transformative” technologies.

POLITICO Power List:The 20 people who matter in U.K. tech.

COVID — ANOTHER U.S. AGENCY CONCLUDES IT WAS A LAB LEAK IN CHINA:

The U.S. Energy Department has joined the FBI in concluding that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, The Wall Street Journal reported. That still leaves the department in the minority: Four other U.S. government agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, believe natural transmission was the cause.

UKRAINE — DID YOU KNOW? Reactions to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine includes a novel approach to continuing education for Ukrainian university students. The Invisible University for Ukraine, delivered by the Central European University, is a set of mega courses offered to students from 30 Ukrainian education institutions. 4-minute video.

GEOPOLITICS — GREAT POWER COMPETITION HEADS TO SOUTH POLE: Earlier this month Beijing announced plans to construct new satellite ground stations around China’s Zhongshan Antarctic research facility. They’re an example of dual use technology: that which have legitimate research functions, but which can easily be repurposed for military applications. Daniel Runde and Henry Ziemer of CSIS argue the U.S. needs to step up its South Pole strategizing.

While the Arctic region has long been part of geopolitical debate — it’s inhabited, home to shipping interests and calls the world’s biggest military powers its neighbors — Antarctica has long been off-limits for politics.

The southern polar region is the subject of a global treaty preventing military and mining action — but that’s due for renewal in 2059, and any discovery of new mineral deposits or new technologies that lower the cost of mining in inhospitable places could change the dynamic.

Context:

— 55 countries are party to the Antarctic Treaty, and 30 countries maintain 82 research stations

— All five of the official Antarctic “gateway cities” are in democracies: Cape Town in South Africa, Christchurch in New Zealand, Hobart in Australia, Punta Arenas in Chile, and Ushuaia in Argentina.

BRITISH SLAVE-OWNING FAMILY SETS UP REPARATION FUND: The Trevelyan family has launched a Reparations Research Fund at the University of the West Indies in an effort to atone for its slave-owning past. In 1835 the family received the equivalent of $3.2 million as compensation for abolishing its part-ownership of 1,004 slaves — and its today adding around $100,000 to the research fund, which will be launched by the Hilary Beckles, chair of the Caribbean Reparations Commission.

CLEAR EXPANDS INTERNATIONALLY: The system elite travelers use to cut the security line at 50 U.S. and Canadian airports, is now operating in four European airports. The “Reserve powered by CLEAR lane” is now at Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Berlin and Rome airports.

GRANT SHAPPS AND HIS UKRAINIAN REFUGEE FAMILY: The British minister in charge of energy security has hosted three Ukrainian refugees in his family home since March 2022. He reflects with them on a year of chaos and progress.

MOVES

AJAY BANGA NOMINATED TO WORLD BANK: Banga is the U.S. nominee, and Americans have held the position throughout the 77-year history of the bank. The nomination deadline is March 29, which should lead to Banga’s confirmation by May.

Educated in India, Banga was CEO at Mastercard for 11 years until 2021, and is now vice chair at General Atlantic, a New York private equity firm.

Elly Schlein, a Swiss-born 37-year-old radical candidate to take over Italy’s traditionally center-left Democratic Party, has won the party’s open primary in a major plot twist. The favorite was Stefano Bonaccini, governor of Emilia-Romagna.

Ya-Ting Liu has been appointed as New York City’s first chief public realm officer — part of a $375 million effort to improve public spaces in the city.

BRAIN FOOD

Three misconceptions about Taiwan’s defense, by Miles Yu for Hudson Institute.

Is the West ready for Putin to lose? By Matthew Kaminski

The NATO weapons challenge: Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Analysis, says NATO’s European members probably have only 10 percent of the weapons and ammunition they need for the early stages of a war in Europe.

Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Sue Allan and producer Sophie Gardner.

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