It’s one of the best meals of the year. But exactly how much will your Thanksgiving dinner cost you in 2023? According to experts, a turkey with all the fixings will definitely be more expensive this year.
“Consumers should expect to spend more on Thanksgiving this year compared to last year,” Uric Dufrene, the Sanders Chair in Business at Indiana University Southeast, told the Courier Journal. “Even though the rate of inflation has declined for food at home, prices are still higher. The rate of increase has only slowed.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, grocery prices are up nearly 17% over the past two years. Last year, the rate of inflation, the general rise in prices of goods and services, was running at 13%. This year, the inflation rate for food at home was at 2.4%, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report.
But even though the rate of increases has slowed, “consumers will continue to think about the kinds of prices that were paid prior to the pandemic … (which) impacts consumer moods and overall sentiment,” Dufrene said, adding that consumer sentiment continues to run at historic low levels, although there has been some improvement from last year. “Wages are generally higher this year compared to last year and this will help consumers with the higher prices.”
So, what does that mean for your shopping cart? The American Farm Bureau will release its annual estimate of the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner on Nov. 15. Consumers spent on average, a total of $64.05 in 2022, and $53.31 in 2021 on their Thanksgiving Day meal. This year, the AFB is expecting a decline in turkey prices of 22% from last year, falling from $1.63 a pound in 2022 to $1.27 a pound in 2023.
With that slight decline, “we should expect to see a smaller increase in 2023, compared to the large jump in 2022,” Dufrene said.
And it’s not just at-home cooks who will see higher prices this year.
“If consumers opt to celebrate Thanksgiving at a restaurant of their choice, they can also expect to see higher prices than last year. Food away from home is running at about 6% compared to last year. This is also slower than the 8.8% this time, last year,” Dufrene said.
Barbara O’Neill, a financial educator, author, and distinguished professor emeritus at Rutgers University, shared a number of tips with USA Today on how shoppers can save money on their next grocery store run, including taking advantage of sales and coupons, buying store-brand items, joining your grocery store’s reward club, considering a membership with a wholesale retailer and making a list before you shop, which will “help you cut back on unnecessary purchases.”
Kroger spokesperson Jessica Sharp said the regional chain offers many ways to save, including “personalized savings” and focusing “on displays that showcase all our great values with holiday and everyday essentials that are $5 and under.”
And although consumers are always looking for a deal, Dufrene said shoppers aren’t slowing down even though prices are up.
“While consumers indicate their displeasure with higher prices, this has not affected their actual behavior, as consumers continue to spend like there is no tomorrow,” he said.
How much will your Thanksgiving Day meal cost in 2023?
We wanted to put this to the test, so we shopped at three local grocery stores — Kroger (two locations), Rainbow Blossom, and ValuMarket — to see how much a Thanksgiving meal might cost this year for a family of four to five. We priced the same 10 items from each location, including ingredients to make a turkey breast, with gravy and cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, stuffing, rolls, and a pie for dessert. We did not factor in any pantry staples, like milk, butter, spices, etc., that might be needed for individual recipes as most homes will have these items on hand.
Additionally, sales tax was not factored in. Store-brand items were used when possible. If none were available, we picked the items with the lowest price on the shelf. These prices are subject to change as stores hold sales on holiday items leading up to Thanksgiving, which this year is Nov. 23.
Shopping took place in person at Rainbow Blossom and ValuMarket on Oct. 24. We used the Kroger app to price items at the below locations on Oct. 27. Here’s how the local stores stacked up:
3165 S 2nd St., kroger.com
- Turkey (7.5-pound turkey breast frozen): $18.68
- Gravy packet: $0.50
- Cranberry sauce (per can): $1.50
- 5-pound bag of russet potatoes: $4.29
- *Green beans (per can): $0.89
- Cream of mushroom soup: $1
- Fried onions (6 ounces): $2.50
- Dinner rolls (fresh): $4.79
- Stuffing mix (cornbread): $1
- Bakery pie (pumpkin): $3.99
Total: $40.03
9800 Taylorsville Road, kroger.com
- Turkey (7.5-pound breast frozen): $20.18
- Gravy packet: $0.50
- Cranberry sauce (per can): $1.89
- 5-pound bag of russet potatoes: $4.29
- *Green beans (per can): $0.89
- Cream of mushroom soup: $1
- Fried onions (6 ounces): $2.79
- Dinner rolls (fresh): $4.99
- Stuffing mix (cornbread): $1.79
- Bakery pie (pumpkin): $3.99
Total: $43.20
3738 Lexington Road, rainbowblossom.com
- Turkey (7.5-pound breast frozen): $48.68
- Gravy packet: $1.79
- Cranberry sauce (organic, per can): $2.79
- 5 pounds of russet potatoes (organic, $2.99 per pound): $14.95
- *Green beans (per can): $2.49
- Cream of mushroom soup: $3.79
- Fried onions (6 ounces): $4.49
- Dinner rolls (fresh): $5.29
- Stuffing mix (cornbread): $7.79
- **Frozen, vegan pie (pumpkin): $13.99
Total: $108.54
1250 Bardstown Road, valumarket.com/stores/mid-city-mall
- Turkey (7.5-pound breast frozen): $22.40
- Gravy packet: $1
- Cranberry sauce (per can): $1.99
- 5-pound bag of russet potatoes: $4.99
- *Green beans (per can): $1.19
- Cream of mushroom soup: $.89
- Fried onions (6 ounces): $3.49
- Dinner rolls (Freshly baked on this date from Nord’s Bakery): $5.99
- Stuffing mix (cornbread): $1.79
- Bakery pie (pumpkin): $7.99
Total: $52.91
*Two cans are typically needed per recipe
**Rainbow Blossom at Lexington Road does not sell fresh pies
Contact business reporter Olivia Evans at [email protected] or on X, formerly known as Twitter at @oliviamevans_.