ELECTRIC ELECTION — The future of electric cars could look a lot different one year from now.
Sales are still growing in the U.S. and abroad, but headwinds are building. And auto executives are sweating upcoming elections in the United States and Europe, which could impact EV-friendly policies that have been put in place to juice sales.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares raised eyebrows last week when he told reporters he was prepared to adjust his company’s electric vehicle strategy if the political tides turn against EVs ahead of key ballots in 2024 on both sides of the Atlantic.
“There are two important elections next year — the European Parliament elections in June and the U.S. elections in November. It could be that politics will be different then,” Tavares told Automotive News affiliate Automobilwoche on the sidelines of a press conference at the Mirafiori plant in Turin.
Stellantis — the parent company of Chrysler — may have to change its strategy “if political and public opinion tends toward fewer EVs,” he said.
President Joe Biden’s reelection is among the most important variables. He has made the transition to electric vehicles a personal crusade, directing billions in two of his most significant legislative achievements to build EV chargers and help subsidize the cost of new electric vehicles — policies that could face resistance if a Republican wins the White House in 2024.
In Europe, parliamentary contests across multiple countries stand to shape the debate. A ban on the sale of all but zero-emission cars and vans is already in place from 2035 onwards, with regulatory pressure also piled on automakers to start selling increasing numbers of EVs now as the phase out date approaches.
But even with the law already on the books covering hulking carmaking states such as Germany, France and Italy, a different political constellation in Brussels could review the rules in the next political term.
Closer to home, it would be hard for Republicans to fully unwind the popular Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate law, with its $7.5 billion tax incentives for buying an EV. But that tax credit is already hobbled by the law’s strict rules aimed at wresting the EV supply chain away from China. Rules that took effect in March narrowed the field of eligible vehicles down to just 1 in 5, and another tranche of rules that just came out will narrow it further.
The Biden administration did what it could to interpret those rules as liberally as possible in order to keep as many EVs eligible as possible for the tax credit — which brings prices closer to those of a traditional gas-powered vehicle. (Note that new vehicles are painfully expensive across the board, with the average new car setting a consumer back more than $48,000.) A Republican administration could further tighten the interpretation of the law, if not the law itself.
The federal grants for EV chargers are just beginning to trickle out. Ever cognizant of the whims of Congress and the fragility of the appropriations process, lawmakers had the good sense in 2021 to pay a hefty down payment on the infrastructure law in the form of advanced appropriations. But the nascency of the process of building out the nation’s charging network still makes it vulnerable.
Over in Europe, automakers also say the process of getting charging infrastructure installed across the bloc’s roads is patchy at best — with huge discrepancies between rich and poor countries.
For example, while the Netherlands has 64 chargers per 100 kilometers of road, some six countries have fewer than a single charger over the same distance and 17 have fewer than five.
This mismatch between pressure to sell clean cars to meet climate targets and the perceived lack of adequate supporting infrastructure raises the prospect of a serious review of the EU’s 2035 rule when it comes up for review in 2026, after next year’s election cycle.
Though that possibility is rejected by politicians today, it’s made all the more likely by a steep decline in the political fortunes of Europe’s Greens, especially in countries such as Germany where the party governs in a three-way coalition.
Of course, just as the elections could impact EVs, the politics of EVs could impact the elections.
Biden’s use of taxpayer dollars to subsidize expensive cars for the upper-middle classes in service to a “green revolution” conservatives love to mock is a useful GOP talking point — especially in an increasingly populist Republican Party. Then again, EV battery plants creating jobs all over the Sun Belt is bringing even doubters into the EV fray.
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— Former U.S. ambassador charged with serving as agent for Cuba: Federal prosecutors allege former State Department official Victor Manuel Rocha, a 73-year-old resident of Miami, Fla., “secretly supported” Cuba and its clandestine intel-gathering efforts by serving as a covert agent of the country’s General Directorate of Intelligence. “Rocha provided false and misleading information to the United States to maintain his secret mission; traveled outside the United States to meet with Cuban intelligence operatives; and made false and misleading statements to obtain travel documents,” the DOJ stated. The DOJ said, when confronted by an undercover FBI agent within the last year, Rocha admitted his ties to the country’s government and referred to the U.S. as “the enemy.”
— House Judiciary set to present new spy powers bill with broad warrant requirement: The House Judiciary Committee will unveil its bid to revise a controversial surveillance program that’s set to expire in just a few weeks. The new legislation would require a warrant to search for any American’s information under Section 702, according to draft text obtained by POLITICO, which is meant to target foreigners abroad but in the process sweeps in citizens’ communications. The current program does not require a warrant when that occurs. The Judiciary Committee is expected to vote on that bill Wednesday, which hasn’t been publicly released but is expected to earn bipartisan support.
— Senators race to save faltering border-Ukraine negotiations: Senate negotiators are scrambling to revive bipartisan border talks after the lead Democrat involved warned that talks had reached a major impasse, potentially endangering a cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda. After Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said today that there’s “no path” currently forward to a border deal, other senators tried to keep discussions from deteriorating further. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) moved to bat down claims that Republicans are insisting on harsh detention policies and Republicans said they expected a new exchange of offers, potentially as soon as this evening.
DOUG DOWN — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum dropped his presidential bid today, POLITICO reports. Burgum, who failed to qualify for the November and December debates, was polling in the single digits before suspending his campaign.
In a statement announcing his drop, Burgum criticized the Republican National Committee’s “clubhouse debate requirements.” The two-term governor made the first two RNC debates, but failed to qualify for the most recent two.
Burgum’s campaign was largely self funded due to his past career as a software entrepreneur (his company sold to Microsoft for $1.1 billion). His name also got recognition for being the first candidate to offer $20 gift cards to anyone who donated $1 to his campaign to reach the 40,000 individual donor requirement for the earlier debates.
DESANTIS IOWA SPOT — Ron DeSantis is starting a new Iowa ad campaign featuring former Donald Trump supporters switching to backing the Florida governor in 2024, CBS reports. The new ad flight, which will launch tomorrow, is starting just six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, scheduled to start on Jan. 15.
DeSantis is up against former President Trump for the GOP nomination, who currently trails in double digits over his opponents. Desantis has attempted to present himself as an alternative to Trump and recently finished visiting the final 99th county of Iowa on Saturday.
The 2016 and 2020 Trump voters in the ads praise DeSantis for his border and economic policies and talk about the need to move on toward a “drama free” candidate. The ads also end with a shot of the DeSantis family with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who has already endorsed DeSantis.
POSTWAR PLANS — Biden administration officials have spent weeks quietly drafting a multiphase postwar plan that envisions a revamped Palestinian Authority ultimately taking over the Gaza Strip, reports POLITICO.
It’s an imperfect solution, but American officials view it as the best of only bad options for a territory where a war between Israel and Hamas militants has shattered infrastructure, killed thousands of Palestinians and displaced more than 1.5 million others. It also could put the U.S. on a collision course with the Israeli government.
Although Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others in the administration have publicly declared that a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority should run the strip, they haven’t unveiled details of how that would work.
But they’ve already run into resistance from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has effectively ruled out a future Gaza role for the Palestinian Authority. Israeli officials for the most part are unwilling to discuss much beyond the current war, which was sparked by a vicious Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 Israelis.
Still, the U.S. strategists drawing up the plans keep coming back to the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank but has long been beset by allegations of corruption and inefficiency. It’s the most viable option, they say.
“We’re stuck,” the State Department official said. “There’s a strong policy preference for the PA to play a governing role in Gaza, but it has significant legitimacy and capability challenges.”
THE TRUMP CARD — One name could dominate Canada’s next election: Donald Trump.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Liberal lawmakers are shifting into full-on attack mode, trying to use former President Trump’s MAGA brand to bludgeon his popular rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, as a hard-right populist out of sync with Canadian values, reports POLITICO.
In Canada, Trump’s name is like a swear word for the center-left, but also a useful tool. A Trump reelection bid could influence the timing of Canada’s next election or deal a wild card to the race, with the odds currently stacked heavily against Trudeau.
“A second Trump presidency almost certainly creates a situation where the next election won’t be about Pierre Poilievre or Justin Trudeau — it will be about Donald Trump and Canada’s relationship with an America that is led by an angry, vengeful creature,” said Scott Reid, who worked in former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin’s office.
Poilievre, a career politician, has fashioned himself as an outsider to the country’s political elite. When he won the party leadership in 2022, the Liberals did not bother to try to define him or launch a major ad campaign to slow his momentum — strange to many Canadian political insiders.
These days, Trudeau’s Liberals keep repeating that Poilievre is “not worth the risk.” They say he’s “reckless” and “unhinged” with moves “straight out of the Republican playbook” in efforts to link him to the Trump arm of the party.
ANCESTRAL REMAINS — Indigenous tribes in Maine are on a mission to rebury ancestral remains — but Harvard University has been stepping in the way for almost three decades, according to a ProPublica investigation. The Penobscot, Passamaquoddy, Maliseet and Mi’kmaq tribes, also known as the Wabanaki tribal nations, have attempted for decades to get the remains of ancestors dug up by Harvard-owned museums almost a century ago. And while a 1990s law was supposed to grant indigenous tribes the right to recollect the remains of their ancestors, Harvard has used loopholes and their influence to delay and stop the return of these remains. Mary Hudetz and Ash Ngu investigate Maine tribes’ struggle to retrieve ancestral remains from one of the most influential universities in the country — and the university’s effort to block them.
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