A debt limit vote with 2024 implications
It’s not too early to talk about 2024 House races.
Next week, House Republicans are set to take their most consequential vote since they recaptured the chamber, as Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) tries to pass legislation to raise the debt limit that’s also packed with conservative priorities.
- To do so, McCarthy will need the vote of almost every Republican running for reelection next year in a battleground district — and potentially all of them if a handful of House Freedom Caucus members refuse to back the bill.
So we thought it might be worth taking a look at how the battle for the House is shaping up. (We previewed Senate races last week.)
Democrats need to win only five more House seats to topple Republicans’ perilously narrow House majority and flip control of the chamber for the third time in four cycles. Republicans, meanwhile, are working to expand their majority and give themselves a little breathing room.
Both parties are seeking an early electoral advantage in the debt limit fight. Democrats plan to go after vulnerable Republicans who vote for it, while the National Republican Congressional Committee is preparing to press Democrats in swing districts today over President Biden’s refusal to negotiate over the debt limit, which has been making some Democrats nervous.
Here’s how strategists in both parties are thinking about the battleground races:
Democrats could win back the majority simply by winning swing seats in two blue states: New York and California.
Republicans picked up four seats in New York last year that Biden carried two years earlier, and Democrats are determined to win them back. Their top targets: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who represents a seat Biden carried by nearly 15 points in 2020, and Rep. Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.), who narrowly defeated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney.
- Democrats are also targeting three other Republican freshmen who hold seats that Biden carried by tighter margins: Reps. Marcus J. Molinaro, Brandon Williams and George Santos — although strategists in both parties doubt Santos will survive the primary. (Biden also carried Republican Rep. Nick LaLota’s district, but that’s a tougher target for Democrats.)
Republicans, meanwhile, will be trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won reelection last year by less than two points a few months after winning a special election. Democrats are counting on better turnout in a presidential election year.
“A presidential year is always tough on New York Republicans versus a non-presidential,” said Thomas Reynolds, a former New York congressman and NRCC chair.
California was the other black eye for House Democrats last year.
Of the five California Republicans whose districts Biden carried in 2020 — Reps. John S. Duarte, David G. Valadao, Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel and Young Kim — Duarte is a top target. He’s the only freshman, and he won by less than half a percentage point in a district Biden carried by nearly 11 points.
- Democrats are also stoked about George Whitesides, a former Virgin Galactic chief executive and NASA chief of staff who raised more than $1 million in the first quarter for his campaign against Garcia, including $500,000 of his own money.
Rudy Salas, a former Democratic state assemblyman who came within three points of defeating Valadao last year, has filed to run again, and Will Rollins, a former prosecutor who challenged Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, is weighing it, too.
Republicans, meanwhile, are targeting the Orange County seat that Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is giving up to run for Senate.
Other Biden seats held by Republicans
There are seven other Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020.
Some of them are tough targets for Democrats, such as Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a moderate who easily won last year. But others are vulnerable, including Reps. Thomas H. Kean (R-N.J.) and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), both of whom are freshmen who won tight races.
Trump seats held by Democrats
Just five Democrats, in contrast, hold seats that former president Donald Trump carried in 2020: Reps. Mary Peltola (Alaska), Jared Golden (Maine), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Matthew Cartwright (Pa.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.).
Republicans are targeting all of them.
They’re betting that Peltola might have a tougher time triumphing in a presidential year when she’s not facing Sarah Palin. Kaptur, meanwhile, defeated a Republican who misled voters about his military record. Will she get as lucky next year?
Republicans are already eyeing the battleground seat that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is vacating to run for Senate.
They’re also going after Reps. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) and Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), two freshmen who prevailed by less than a point last year, and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), whose narrow victory last year was aided by Republican Doug Mastriano’s blowout loss in the governor’s race.
Democrats, meanwhile, will be targeting freshmen Reps. Zachary Nunn (R-Iowa) and John James (R-Mich.), each of whom barely won their races last year.
- “One thing I’m watching closely is what’s happening on the ground in places like Iowa, where you have seen the legislature take a hard right turn,” Julie Merz, the DCCC’s executive director, said in an interview, adding that such moves could create opportunities for Democrats.
The wild card: Ongoing redistricting battles that could hurt Democrats in North Carolina and Ohio and could cost Republicans seats in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia and Florida, depending on how courts rule in the coming months.
A new attempt at gun safety unveiled
Gun violence is once again in the headlines — does it ever leave? — and there is zero expectation Congress will act.
But this week a bipartisan group of House members is introducing a modest gun safety bill that would incentivize safe storage of weapons.
It’s a sign the issue still has political salience in some competitive districts.
Led by Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), the measure would provide tax incentives for gun retailers to sell gun storage devices.
- “This bill is a strong step we can take to reduce unintentional discharges, suicides and school shootings by incentivizing the safe storage of firearms,” Levin said.
The measure is co-authored by three Republicans in swing districts: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Fla.), Lawler and Kim. Democratic Reps. Brendan Boyle (Pa.) and Vicente Gonzalez (Tex.) are also bill leads.
- “Over the past decade, nine in every 10 youth suicides by gun were with guns in the victim’s home, and roughly one in every three kids lives in a home with guns,” Kim said. “I will always support common sense policies that save lives and keep our communities safe.”
A new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that a high number of Americans have experienced or know someone who has been affected by gun violence. In that same poll, 4 in 10 Americans live in a household with a gun and 44 percent of those people say a gun is stored in an unlocked location.
What’s likely to get a vote
The more likely gun bill to move through the House, however, is one by Rep. Andrew S. Clyde (R-Ga.) that would “disapprove” of a Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives rule that imposes regulations and registration on the sale of rifle “stabilizing braces.”
The House Judiciary Committee advanced the measure this week after it was previously postponed because of the Covenant School shooting, where three children and three teachers were killed. The shooter used a stabilizer, according to the authorities.
Clyde’s bill is the latest evidence of how fiercely the Republican base opposes gun restrictions.
- In the Republican base, the pro-gun constituency remains vocal.
After Rep. Stephanie I. Bice (R-Okla.) voted in 2021 to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, which included a provision that prohibited people convicted of domestic violence from owning guns, she said she was the target of intense opposition in her district.
“I got blasted at home for it,” including with fundraising campaigns against Bice by pro-gun rights groups, she said at a recent event.
Oklahoma ranks second in the country in having women killed by men, according to the Violence Policy Center. The state has also banned red flag laws.
Ethics: We’re waiting to see if Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. accepts Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Richard J. Durbin’s (D-Ill.) invitation to testify before the committee about the court’s ethics rules on May 2 — or if he decides to send another justice in his place, or snubs Durbin altogether.
- Democrats for years have pressed the Supreme Court to adopt an enforceable code of conduct due to concerns about financial disclosures and conflicts of interest. Durbin’s letter on Thursday follows a series of revelations that Justice Clarence Thomas failed to disclose luxury trips and property sales involving billionaire Republican donor Harlan Crow.
In his letter, Durbin said Roberts’s “last significant discussion” about how the court could resolve ethical issues was in a 2011 report on the federal judiciary.
- At that time, Roberts wrote that “the Court has had no reason to adopt the Code of Conduct as its definitive source of ethical guidance” because the justices “consult a wide variety of other authorities to resolve specific ethical issues.”
Several Republicans, including Sen. Charles E. Grassley (Iowa), the committee’s top Republican, have said they don’t think Roberts should testify. When asked whether House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) would consider holding a hearing on the matter, his spokesman said only: “God Bless Justice Thomas.”
If Roberts does opt to send another justice in his place, who will it be?
Justice Elena Kagan testified before a spending panel in 2019 alongside Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. Or perhaps Thomas will show up himself? (Don’t bet on it.)
Abortion: We’re also waiting for the justices to decide by tonight whether to uphold two lower-court rulings that restricted access to the abortion pill mifepristone pending the Justice Department’s appeal.
A ruling in favor of antiabortion groups would upend abortion access for millions of people nationwide.
Abortion continues to divide Republicans.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the antiabortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, on Thursday laid into the Trump campaign’s statement to The Post that abortion should be left to the states as “a morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate to hold.”
But Dannenfelser declined to criticize Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel for seeking to consolidate Republicans around a 15-week abortion ban while privately expressing concern about a six-week ban.
- “This issue is near Ronna’s heart, she is a leader on it, and we are glad to work together to achieve consensus, elect a pro-life president in 2024 and gain full control of Congress,” Dannenfelser said in a statement to The Early.
At the Department of Homeland Security
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will deliver what is being billed as his first “state of homeland security” address this morning. He’ll discuss changing technologies and climates and their impact on the United States and is expected to announce two new initiatives to address technological threats and nation state aggression.
What he’s not expected to focus on is the border — the issue over which House Republicans are threatening to impeach him. Our colleague Nick Miroff reports that Mayorkas is expected next week to release a plan to address an expected surge of immigrants after Title 42 ends next month.
The lobbying business traditionally booms when a new president takes office and slumps during divided government, when Washington has a tougher time realizing the policies that companies are seeking as well as the ones they fear.
But three months after Republicans took control of Congress, K Street is doing almost as well as ever.
Many top firms reported first-quarter lobbying revenue only slightly below the highs they hit last year ahead of Thursday’s filing deadline. Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, Washington’s highest-grossing firm, reported near-record revenue.
Here’s what some of the top firms brought in, according to numbers shared with The Early:
- Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: $13.4 million (versus $13 million in Q1 2022 and $14.1 million in Q4 2022)
- Alpine Group: $4.6 million (versus $4.2 million in Q1 2022 and $4.7 million in Q4 2022)
- Ballard Partners: $4.5 million (versus $4.4 million in Q1 2022 and $4.3 million in Q4 2022)
- BGR Group: $10.2 million (versus $9.6 million in Q1 2022 and $10.1 million in Q4 2022)
- Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck: $15.8 million (versus $15.4 million in Q1 2022 and $15.6 million in Q4 2022)
- Capitol Counsel: $6.3 million (versus $6 million in Q1 2022 and $6.5 million in Q4 2022)
- Cassidy & Associates: $5.4 million (versus $5.5 million in Q1 2022 and $5.6 million in Q4 2022)
- Cornerstone Government Affairs: $9.8 million (versus $9.2 million in Q1 2022 and $9.5 million in Q4 2022)
- Covington & Burling: $2.9 million (versus $3.8 million in Q1 2022 and $3 million in Q4 2022)
- Fierce Government Relations: $3.2 million (versus $3.2 million in Q1 2022 and $3.2 million in Q4 2022)
- Holland & Knight: $10.8 million (versus $10.1 million in Q1 2022 and $11.1 million in Q4 2022)
- Invariant: $9.7 million (versus $9.2 million in Q1 2022 and $9.9 million in Q4 2022)
- K&L Gates: $5.5 million (versus $5.2 million in Q1 2022 and $5.3 million in Q4 2022)
- Mehlman Consulting: $6.3 million (versus $6.4 million in Q1 2022 and $6.4 million in Q4 2022)
- Monument Advocacy: $3.4 million (versus $3.3 million in Q1 2022 and $3.6 million in Q4 2022)
- Squire Patton Boggs: $6 million (versus $7.2 million in Q1 2022 and $6.1 million in Q4 2022)
- Subject Matter: $4.8 million (versus $4.9 million in Q1 2022 and $4.8 million in Q4 2022)
- Thorn Run Partners: $6.5 million (versus $6.4 million in Q1 2022 and $6.7 million in Q4 2022)
- Van Scoyoc Associates: $4.8 million (versus $4.5 million in Q1 2022 and $6 million in Q4 2022)
Trump’s authoritarian vision for 2024
‘I am your justice’: Our colleagues Isaac Arnsdorf and Jeff Stein take us inside Trump’s proposed agenda for his second term. His policies, which fall under public safety and law enforcement, would test the limits of his presidential power.
If reelected, Trump says he would …
- Implement mandatory stop-and-frisk
- Use the military to fight crime, disband gangs and deport immigrants
- Gut the federal workforce
- Crack down on leakers
Times are changing: “Trump’s emerging platform marks a sharp departure from traditional conservative orthodoxy emphasizing small government,” Isaac and Jeff write. “Trump, by contrast, is proposing to apply government power, centralized under his authority, toward a vast range of issues that have long remained outside the scope of federal control.”
- Larry Elder enters 2024 presidential race. By Politico’s Kelly Garrity.
- Local read: Fugees rapper’s case that crossed Hollywood, D.C. goes to jury. By the Associated Press’s Lindsay Whitehurst.
- Timely read: The internet of the 2010s ended today. By the Atlantic’s Charlie Warzel.
Monday marked McCarthy’s 100th day in power. In a speech to commemorate the occasion, McCarthy touted his party’s accomplishments, noting: “One thing that is abundantly clear,” he said, “is the people’s house is a productive house.”
Here are some photos from McCarthy’s first 100 days in office, taken by our colleague Jabin Botsford:
Thanks for reading. You can also follow us on Twitter: @theodoricmeyer and @LACaldwellDC.