The two weeks before NBA training camps open are not usually the time for landscape-altering trades. But the league was rocked when the Portland Trail Blazers sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks on Sept. 28, adding one of the league’s best offensive players to the team that had the league’s best record last season. The Blazers weren’t done, re-routing Jrue Holiday to the team — the Boston Celtics — that had the league’s second-best record.
Those two deals made an impact on the 22nd annual NBA GM Survey, with the Celtics receiving one-third of the picks from general managers to win the 2023-24 championship. That has them tied with the defending champion Denver Nuggets, with the Bucks not far behind. Between them, Lillard and Holiday received 60% of the votes for offseason acquisitions that would make the biggest impact.
Finals MVP Nikola Jokic is, appropriately, the star of the Survey, receiving the most votes for this season’s Kia MVP pick, the player GMs would want to start a franchise with, best center, best passer and best basketball IQ. Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo (power forward) were overwhelming picks at their respective positions, the first time in 11 years (since Dwight Howard in 2013) that a player (or players) received more than 90% of the votes at any position.
Victor Wembanyama was considered the best Draft prospect of the last 20 years and, appropriately, got 90% of the votes when GMs were asked which rookie would be the best player in five years. Even though they have yet to see him play an NBA game, 23% of the league’s decision-makers also named the 19-year-old San Antonio Spur as the player they’d like to start a franchise with (second most behind Jokic).
The GMs responded to 50 questions about the best teams, players, coaches and offseason moves. General managers were not permitted to vote for their own team or personnel. Percentages are based on the pool of respondents to that particular question, rather than all 30 GMs.
PREDICTIONS
Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals?
T-1. Boston Celtics – 33%
T-1. Denver Nuggets – 33%
3. Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
4. Phoenix Suns – 7%
5. LA Clippers – 3%
» Last year: Milwaukee Bucks – 43%
Eastern Conference rankings
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | %Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Boston | 53% | 43% | 34% | ||
| 2. | Milwaukee | 43% | 53% | 33% | ||
| 3. | Cleveland | 43% | 23% | 11% | ||
| 4. | Philadelphia | 30% | 20% | 8% | ||
| 5. | New York | 17% | 33% | 7% | ||
| 6. | Miami | 3% | 3% | 10% | 20% | 6% |
| 7. | Atlanta | 3% | 0% |
%Total = Percentage of total points (4 for 1st place vote, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, 1 for 4th)
» Last year: 72% picked Milwaukee to win the East. Order after the Bucks was Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Miami and Cleveland.
Western Conference rankings
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | %Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Denver | 70% | 20% | 3% | 35% | |
| 2. | Phoenix | 23% | 50% | 3% | 7% | 26% |
| 3. | L.A. Lakers | 3% | 20% | 27% | 23% | 15% |
| 4. | Golden State | 7% | 37% | 17% | 11% | |
| 5. | LA Clippers | 3% | 23% | 10% | 7% | |
| 6. | Memphis | 7% | 13% | 3% | ||
| T-7. | New Orleans | 3% | 3% | 1% | ||
| T-7. | Sacramento | 13% | 1% | |||
| 9. | Dallas | 10% | 1% | |||
| 10. | Oklahoma City | 3% | 0% |
%Total = Percentage of total points (4 for 1st place vote, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, 1 for 4th)
» Last year: The Clippers and Warriors both got 48% of the votes to win the West, though the Clippers got more total points. Order after those two teams was Phoenix, Denver, Memphis, Dallas and Minnesota (tied), the Lakers and New Orleans.
PLAYERS
Who will win the 2023-24 Kia MVP?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 43%
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 20%
3. Jayson Tatum, Boston – 13%
4. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
» Also receiving votes: Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers; Kevin Durant, Phoenix; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City
» Last year: Luka Doncic – 48%
If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 33%
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 23%
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 13%
4. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
5. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Stephen Curry, Golden State; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City; Jayson Tatum, Boston
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 55%
Which player forces opposing coaches to make the most adjustments?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 40%
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 33%
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 13%
4. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
5. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia – 3%
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 52%
Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2023-24?
1. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 23%
2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit – 20%
3. Franz Wagner, Orlando – 13%
T-4. Paolo Banchero, Orlando – 7%
T-4. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Desmond Bane, Memphis; Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn; Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana; Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City; Kyrie Irving, Dallas; Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota; Evan Mobley, Cleveland; Alperen Sengun, Houston; Zion Williamson, New Orleans
» Last year: Evan Mobley – 21%
Who is the best point guard in the NBA?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 63%
2. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 27%
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 7%
4. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 3%
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 72%
Who is the best shooting guard in the NBA?
1. Devin Booker, Phoenix – 63%
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 10%
T-3. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 7%
T-3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 7%
T-3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Jimmy Butler, Miami; Jayson Tatum, Boston
» Last year: Devin Booker – 45%
Who is the best small forward in the NBA?
1. Jayson Tatum, Boston – 47%
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 20%
3. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 17%
4. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 13%
5. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 3%
» Last year: Kevin Durant – 45%
Who is the best power forward in the NBA?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 97%
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 3%
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 86%
Who is the best center in the NBA?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 93%
» Also receiving votes: Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia
» Last year: Nikola Jokic – 79%
Highest percentage of total votes on position questions
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 19.3%
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 18.7%
3. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 14.7%
4. Devin Booker, Phoenix – 12.7%
T-5. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10.0%
T-5. Jayson Tatum, Boston – 10.0%
OFFSEASON MOVES
Which team made the best overall moves this offseason?
T-1. Boston Celtics – 23%
T-1. Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
3. Portland Trail Blazers – 17%
4. Los Angeles Lakers – 13%
T-5. Dallas Mavericks – 7%
T-5. Houston Rockets – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns
» Last year: Cleveland Cavaliers – 41%
Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact?
1. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 47%
2. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 13%
3. Bradley Beal, Phoenix – 10%
T-4. Kristaps Porzingis, Boston – 7%
T-4. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7%
T-4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Dillon Brooks, Houston; Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix; Marcus Smart, Memphis
» Last year: Donovan Mitchell – 59%
What was the most underrated player acquisition?
1. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 17%
2. Grant Williams, Dallas – 14%
T-3. Dillon Brooks, Houston – 7%
T-3. Bruce Brown, Indiana – 7%
T-3. Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix – 7%
T-3. Max Strus, Cleveland – 7%
T-3. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Deandre Ayton, Portland; Miles Bridges, Charlotte; Jrue Holiday, Boston; Tyus Jones, Washington; Jordan Poole, Washington; Kristaps Porzingis, Boston; Dennis Schroder, Toronto; Obi Toppin, Indiana; Sasha Vezenkov, Sacramento; Gabe Vincent, L.A. Lakers
» Last year: Malcolm Brogdon – 28%
Which team will be most improved in 2023-24?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder – 30%
2. Houston Rockets – 23%
T-3. Dallas Mavericks – 10%
T-3. Detroit Pistons – 10%
T-3. Orlando Magic – 10%
» Also receiving votes: Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz
» Last year: LA Clippers – 41%
What was the most surprising move of the offseason?
1. Holiday/Lillard trade – 43%
2. Smart/Porzingis trade – 20%
3. Chris Paul to Golden State – 17%
T-4. Bradley Beal to Phoenix – 7%
T-4. Bruce Brown to Indiana – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Fred VanVleet to Houston, Grant Williams to Dallas
» Last year: Rudy Gobert to Minnesota – 47%
ROOKIES & INTERNATIONAL
Who will win the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year?
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 50%
2. Scoot Henderson, Portland – 27%
3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City – 20%
4. Sasha Vezenkov, Sacramento – 3%
» Last year: Paolo Banchero – 79%
Which rookie will be the best player in five years?
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio – 90%
» Also receiving votes: Scoot Henderson, Portland; Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City; Amen Thompson, Houston
» Last year: Paolo Banchero – 31%
» Five years ago: Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr. – 27%
Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft?
1. Cam Whitmore (20), Houston – 43%
T-2. Keyonte George (16), Utah – 10%
T-2. Scoot Henderson (3), Portland – 10%
T-2. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18), Miami – 10%
5. Brandin Podziemski (19), Golden State – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Emoni Bates (49), Cleveland; Leonard Miller (33), Minnesota; Marcus Sasser (25), Detroit; Brice Sensabaugh (28), Utah; Ausar Thompson (5), Detroit; Jordan Walsh (38), Boston
» Last year: Jalen Duren and Tari Eason – 14%
Who is the best international player in the NBA?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 80%
2. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 10%
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 7%
4. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia – 3%
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 57%
Who is the best international player NOT in the NBA?
1. Nikola Mirotic – 37%
2. Edy Tavares – 27%
3. Alex Sarr – 13%
4. Dzanan Musa – 10%
5. Willy Hernangomez – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Juancho Hernangomez, Rokas Jokubaitis
» Last year: Victor Wembanyama – 45%
DEFENSE
Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 40%
2. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 13%
T-3. Draymond Green, Golden State – 10%
T-3. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 10%
T-4. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis – 7%
T-4. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Alex Caruso, Chicago; Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers; Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City; Rudy Gobert, Minnesota
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 48%
Who is the best perimeter defender in the NBA?
1. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 50%
2. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn – 13%
T-3. Alex Caruso, Chicago – 10%
T-3. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 10%
5. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Jimmy Butler, Miami; Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City; Jayson Tatum, Boston
» Last year: Marcus Smart – 41%
Who is the best interior defender in the NBA?
1. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis – 30%
T-2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota – 17%
T-2. Brook Lopez, Milwaukee – 17%
T-4. Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers – 13%
T-4. Draymond Green, Golden State – 13%
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 7%
7. Evan Mobley, Cleveland – 3%
» Last year: Rudy Gobert – 83%
Who is the most versatile defender in the NBA?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 37%
2. Draymond Green, Golden State – 23%
3. Bam Adebayo, Miami – 13%
T-4. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn – 7%
T-4. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Dillon Brooks, Houston; Paul George, LA Clippers; Aaron Gordon, Denver; Marcus Smart, Memphis
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 41%
Which is the best defensive team in the NBA?
1. Boston Celtics – 47%
2. Memphis Grizzlies – 17%
3. Milwaukee Bucks – 13%
4. Miami Heat – 10%
5. Cleveland Cavaliers – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Lakers
» Last year: Boston Celtics – 69%
COACHES
Who is the best head coach in the NBA?
1. Erik Spoelstra, Miami – 73%
2. Tyronn Lue, LA Clippers – 10%
T-3. Steve Kerr, Golden State – 7%
T-3. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio – 7%
5. Michael Malone, Denver – 3%
» Last year: Erik Spoelstra – 52%
Which head coach is the best manager/motivator of people?
1. Erik Spoelstra, Miami – 37%
2. Steve Kerr, Golden State – 23%
3. Tyronn Lue, LA Clippers – 17%
4. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio – 13%
» Also receiving votes: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City; Jamahl Mosley, Orlando; Monty Williams, Detroit
» Last year: Steve Kerr – 38%
Which head coach makes the best in-game adjustments?
1. Erik Spoelstra, Miami – 43%
2. Tyronn Lue, LA Clippers – 30%
T-3. Rick Carlisle, Indiana – 7%
T-3. Nick Nurse, Philadelphia – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City; Steve Kerr, Golden State; Gregg Popovich, San Antonio; Quin Snyder, Atlanta
» Last year: Tyronn Lue – 55%
Which head coach runs the best offense?
1. Mike Brown, Sacramento – 33%
2. Steve Kerr, Golden State – 23%
3. Michael Malone, Denver – 17%
4. Chris Finch, Minnesota – 13%
5. Rick Carlisle, Indiana – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Nick Nurse, Philadelphia; Quin Snyder, Atlanta
» Last year: Steve Kerr – 62%
Which head coach has the best defensive schemes?
1. Erik Spoelstra, Miami – 40%
T-2. Taylor Jenkins, Memphis – 13%
T-2. Tom Thibodeau, New York – 13%
T-4. J.B. Bickerstaff, Cleveland – 7%
T-4. Tyronn Lue, LA Clippers – 7%
T-4. Frank Vogel, Phoenix – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Mike Brown, Sacramento; Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City; Joe Mazzulla, Boston; Nick Nurse, Philadelphia
» Last year: Erik Spoelstra – 34%
Which new or relocated head coach will make the biggest impact on his new team?
1. Ime Udoka, Houston – 57%
2. Monty Williams, Detroit – 17%
3. Frank Vogel, Phoenix – 13%
T-4. Adrian Griffin, Milwaukee – 7%
T-4. Darko Rajakovic, Toronto – 7%
» Last year: Darvin Ham – 48%
Who is the best assistant coach in the NBA?
1. Jordi Fernandez, Sacramento – 31%
T-2. Terry Stotts, Milwaukee – 10%
T-2. Kevin Young, Phoenix – 10%
T-4. Sam Cassell, Boston – 7%
T-4. Charles Lee, Boston – 7%
» Also receiving votes: David Adelman, Denver; Kenny Atkinson, Golden State; Chris DeMarco, Golden State; Darren Erman, New York; David Fizdale, Phoenix; Royal Ivey, Houston; Alex Jensen, Dallas; Chris Quinn, Miami; Jay Triano, Sacramento; Will Weaver, Brooklyn
» Last year: Kenny Atkinson / Charles Lee – 34%
Which active player will make the best head coach someday?
1. Chris Paul, Golden State – 20%
T-2. Mike Conley, Minnesota – 13%
T-2. Garrett Temple, Toronto – 13%
4. T.J. McConnell, Indiana – 10%
T-5. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 7%
T-5. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Jose Alvarado, New Orleans; Desmond Bane, Memphis; Jalen Brunson, New York; Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana; Nikola Jokic, Denver; Tyus Jones, Washington; Patty Mills, Atlanta; Monte Morris, Detroit; Grant Williams, Dallas
» Last year: Chris Paul – 32%
MISCELLANEOUS
Which team is the most fun to watch?
1. Denver Nuggets – 30%
2. Golden State Warriors – 23%
3. Sacramento Kings – 20%
4. Phoenix Suns – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder
» Last year: Golden State Warriors – 52%
Which team has the best home-court advantage?
1. Denver Nuggets – 37%
2. Golden State Warriors – 17%
3. Sacramento Kings – 13%
4. Utah Jazz – 10%
T-5. Boston Celtics – 7%
T-5. New York Knicks – 7%
T-5. Toronto Raptors – 7%
8. Philadelphia 76ers – 3%
» Last year: Toronto Raptors – 21%
Which team will have the league’s most efficient offense this season?
1. Denver Nuggets – 34%
2. Sacramento Kings – 21%
3. Golden State Warriors – 14%
4. Boston Celtics – 10%
T-5. Milwaukee Bucks – 7%
T-5. Phoenix Suns – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat
» Last year: Golden State Warriors – 38%
Which team’s level of success this season is toughest to predict?
1. Philadelphia 76ers – 30%
T-2. Dallas Mavericks – 13%
T-2. Oklahoma City Thunder – 13%
T-4. New Orleans – 10%
T-4. Phoenix Suns – 10%
T-4. LA Clippers – 10%
» Also receiving votes: Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Toronto Raptors
» Last year: Brooklyn Nets – 32%
Which team has the most promising young core?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder – 73%
2. Cleveland Cavaliers – 10%
3. Orlando Magic – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers
» Last year: Cleveland Cavaliers – 41%
Which player is the most athletic?
1. Ja Morant, Memphis – 34%
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 28%
3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota – 24%
4. Zion Williamson, New Orleans – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Jalen Green, Houston; Shaedon Sharpe, Portland
» Last year: Ja Morant – 38%
Which player is the best pure shooter?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 90%
» Also receiving votes: Kevin Durant, Phoenix; Luke Kennard, Memphis; Damian Lillard, Milwaukee
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 91%
Which player is the fastest with the ball?
1. De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento – 57%
2. Ja Morant, Memphis – 37%
» Also receiving votes: Kyrie Irving, Dallas; Jaden Ivey, Detroit
» Last year: Ja Morant – 62%
Which player is the best at moving without the ball?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 73%
2. Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn – 13%
3. Klay Thompson, Golden State – 10%
4. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee – 3%
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 81%
Which player is the best passer?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 67%
2. Luka Doncic, Dallas – 17%
3. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana; James Harden, Philadelphia; Chris Paul, Golden State
» Last year: Nikola Jokic – 72%
Which player is the best leader?
1. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 27%
2. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 23%
3. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 17%
T-4. Jimmy Butler, Miami – 7%
T-4. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 7%
T-4. Chris Paul, Golden State – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee; Jalen Brunson, New York; Draymond Green, Golden State; Jrue Holiday, Boston
» Last year: Chris Paul – 34%
Who is the most versatile player in the NBA?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee – 45%
2. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 28%
3. Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn; Luka Doncic, Dallas; Paul George, LA Clippers; Draymond Green, Golden State; Nikola Jokic, Denver; Jayson Tatum, Boston
» Last year: Giannis Antetokounmpo – 59%
Which player has the best basketball IQ?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 50%
2. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers – 33%
3. Chris Paul, Golden State – 10%
» Also receiving votes: Stephen Curry, Golden State; Luka Doncic, Dallas
» Last year: LeBron James – 45%
Which player would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State – 37%
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix – 27%
3. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 17%
T-4. Jimmy Butler, Miami – 7%
T-4. Nikola Jokic, Denver – 7%
» Also receiving votes: Luka Doncic, Dallas; Kyrie Irving, Dallas
» Last year: Stephen Curry – 55%
Which change (In-Season Tournament, rest rules, something from the new CBA, etc.) will require the biggest adjustment?
1. Player participation policy – 37%
2. Tax apron restrictions – 33%
3. In-Season Tournament – 13%
T-4. 65-game award rule – 7%
T-4. Flopping techs – 7%
6. Extra coach’s challenge – 3%
» Last year: N/A
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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